China has been marked for sale by investors.
As the market shows signs of stress, a growing number of China-focused, mostly Hong Kong-based investors are selling major property projects on the mainland. A lack of credit, as well as the country's slowing growth, have been the catalysts. real estate companies in qatar
At the same time, Chinese developers have expressed a willingness to transfer money out of the country and into developed markets, while not abandoning their home market. Another way they protect themselves from a possible downturn is by rapid diversification.
The most notable investor move has been made by Asia's wealthiest man, Li Ka-shing, who has been selling properties in both Hong Kong and China. His companies sold the Oriental Financial Center office tower in Shanghai for US$1.2 billion last October. He sold the Metropolitan Plaza shopping center in Guangzhou for $387 million a month before.
Li received the nickname "Superman" for his ability to close deals and for investing in properties that, in hindsight, turned out to be undervalued and available at bargain rates.
He's been reinvesting his earnings in Europe.
He obviously sees an opportunity to sell high and buy low in Greater China. That is a move that investors should take note of.
"He's always been a smart cookie. He's always been one step ahead of the game "Todd Pallett, a wealth management advisor at EXS Capital in Hong Kong, said. "After a year, people catch up."
Richard Li, his younger sibling, has followed in his footsteps. Pacific Century Premium Developments Ltd., his property subsidiary, has sold the Pacific Century Place project in Beijing's upscale Sanlitun neighborhood for $928 million.
Pacific Century Place is a mixed-use development with two office and residential buildings and a shopping center.
In February, Soho China, a well-known mainland developer of luxury office space, sold two projects in Shanghai for a combined US$837 million.
Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin, a mainland political couple, run Soho China. Zhang is one of China's most well-known female executives, appearing in the Michael Douglas sequel "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps" as a cynical Asian investor. She dismissed a US investment bank's offer of an unattractive solar-power investment after she was offered it "Are there any other investment opportunities available to you? We've come a long way, after all."
Many such discussions regarding property developments might be taking place right now. Rental yields have fallen in cities like Shanghai and Beijing as the markets have matured and a significant amount of domestic capital is seeking deals at home. Yields in China's top office markets range from 4 to 4.5 percent, compared to 6 to 7% in other global gateway cities.
In the real world, Soho China's Zhang noted at a recent conference that while her ventures in China could generate yields of 5%, borrowing costs are 7%. "I lose 2%," she said. Last year, she purchased a personal interest in the General Motors house. While rents in New York can yield 5%, the borrowing cost is only 2%.
According to Colliers International, the amount of outbound investment from China into international real estate has increased from US$69 million in 2008 to US$16 billion last year. In 2014, Colliers estimates that at least US$32 billion would flow offshore.
Despite the fact that Li's father and son are both based in Hong Kong, they do not seem to see their home market as a viable option for reinvesting the proceeds from China sales.
Many analysts and investment banks predict that the Hong Kong residential market would need to drop by 30% before being affordable.
Also brokers, who are known for pumping up the economy, are beginning to see the possibility. Recently, Joseph Tsang, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle's Hong Kong office, said that the 15% tax that foreign buyers must pay, as well as borrowing constraints and fast sales that make it difficult for Hong Kong buyers to join the market or upgrade, would bite hard.
"If the steps are not withdrawn, I expect home prices to drop 10-15% this year and another 10-15% next year," he told the South China Morning Post.
Of course, one person's purchase is another's selling. Richard Li's project was purchased by Gaw Capital, a Hong Kong-based private equity property firm.
Gaw Capital's Gateway Real Estate Fund IV, a China-focused, core-plus, opportunistic, and value-added fund, raised $1 billion last year.
Given the lack of liquidity and China's crackdown on shadow banking and bad loans, founder Goodwin Gaw sees now as an opportunity to put money to work in China. As a result, banks have reduced or stopped lending to developers.
The situation drives out sellers at a time when there is less competition for good projects than in recent years.
"There are usually more opportunities when the market is liquidity limited by the government enacting austerity measures," Gaw said shortly after his fund closed. "Due to the liquidity situation, there are high-quality assets in Tier 1 cities that you can get your hands on during this period."
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